US Faces Most Serious Risk of Major War in 80 Years, Experts Warn: Unprepared for Potential Conflict
(TND) — A recent report submitted to Congress and the President highlights that the U.S. is inadequately prepared for a major war. The bipartisan Commission on the National Defense Strategy has warned that the country is facing “the most serious and most challenging” threats in eight decades.
The commission, which unanimously agreed on its findings, noted that the U.S. is at risk of a “near-term major war.” The last time the nation was fully prepared for such a global conflict was during the Cold War, which ended 35 years ago.
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According to the report, “It is not prepared today.”
Bradley Martin, director of the RAND National Security Supply Chain Institute, echoed the commission’s concerns, stating, “The chances of a major-power war are unfortunately significant.” RAND assisted in compiling the report.
Defense spending as a percentage of GDP has declined since the Cold War era. In the 1950s, defense expenditures accounted for over 11% of GDP, falling to about 6% in the 1980s, and now stands at around 3%. Raphael Cohen, another RAND expert, pointed out that America’s defense capacity has diminished since the Cold War, which is evident in ongoing conflicts such as those involving Israel and Ukraine.
“Our defense industrial base is struggling for a host of reasons,” Cohen said. “This issue goes beyond Israel and Gaza or Ukraine; it is rooted in how we have neglected the defense industrial base since the Cold War. We need to rebuild it, but we're facing significant challenges.”
Martin, a retired Navy captain, acknowledged that while the U.S. military performs well in its routine operations, it faces a serious shortfall in defense industrial capacity. He highlighted that military recruitment issues are only part of the problem; the U.S. lacks the technical workforce and manufacturing capabilities necessary for producing munitions and critical spare parts.
“There’s a tendency to focus on building a few very expensive assets,” Martin said, “but effective deterrence requires a distributed combat capability, ready for deployment in a crisis. It’s not about having $4 billion destroyers alone; quantity also matters.”
While there might be opportunities for efficiency improvements within the Defense Department, increasing defense capacity will be costly. This could involve cuts to existing government programs or raising taxes, which Martin admitted might be politically challenging.
Martin emphasized that enhancing defense capabilities is essential for maintaining stability and prosperity. “The defense investments we make are crucial for our national stability and prosperity, even if they are not always visible,” he said.
He compared the current situation unfavorably to the period before World War II when the U.S. had greater industrial capacity and available labor. “We need to act now, in peacetime, to bolster our defense readiness,” Martin stressed.
Potential threats from Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and other nations are looming. Martin expressed skepticism that Russia would risk a direct conflict with NATO or all of Europe, and he doubted China would jeopardize its economy with an invasion of Taiwan. However, the Middle East remains unpredictable and could spark broader conflicts, potentially involving interests from China and beyond.
Martin concluded, “We may be caught off guard by the next major threat, and we must be prepared to respond effectively.”
