Russian President Vladimir Putin has issued a stern warning that if NATO allows Ukraine to use longer-range missiles to strike within Russian territory, it would be perceived by Moscow as a direct involvement of the alliance in the conflict.
Putin’s remarks come amid increasing discussions among US and Western diplomats about potentially lifting the restrictions on Ukraine’s use of US-provided long-range weapons. Ukraine has been advocating for this change more than two years into Russia’s invasion.
“If NATO countries—the United States and European nations—permit Ukraine to carry out strikes inside Russia, it would signify that NATO is at war with Russia,” Putin told reporters on Thursday. “Given this shift in the nature of the conflict, we will respond accordingly to any new threats posed to us.”
Currently, while the US has authorized limited cross-border strikes into Russia using US-provided weapons, President Joe Biden’s administration has not yet agreed to longer-range strikes. US officials have voiced concerns that such a move could escalate the conflict and intensify accusations from Russia that the US is directly involved in the war. Reports indicate that Russia has relocated some assets beyond the range of long-range strikes as a precaution.
During a recent visit to Kyiv, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken hinted that the White House might reconsider its stance. “As we have seen the battlefield evolve, we have adjusted our approach accordingly, and I am confident that we will continue to adapt as needed,” Blinken said alongside Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha and Britain’s Foreign Secretary David Lammy. He mentioned discussing the restrictions with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and promised to report back to President Biden.
In the US, both Democratic and Republican lawmakers are urging Biden to ease the restrictions, especially as Ukraine struggles to secure its gains. The bipartisan congressional Ukraine caucus and key House Republicans have called for the authorization of long-range strikes.
Putin also questioned Ukraine’s ability to execute long-range strikes independently, suggesting that the Ukrainian military might not be able to effectively use advanced long-range systems from the West without NATO assistance in targeting. While the US has provided intelligence to Ukraine, it has not yet been involved in targeting for the long-range systems under consideration.
According to Dr. Stacie Pettyjohn, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, Ukraine may have access to other intelligence resources, such as commercial satellite imagery, which could assist in targeting.
The US provided Ukraine with long-range Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missiles with a range of about 180 miles (290 kilometers) in October 2023. Ukraine has consistently pushed for longer-range systems to strike deeper into Russian territory.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov has stated that Russian airfields used to strike Ukrainian cities are within the range of deep strikes. Ukraine has used its ATACMS to target high-value Russian assets in occupied Crimea, including air defenses, ammo depots, and airfields.
If NATO decides to authorize the use of Western weapons for long-range strikes inside Russia, these systems could potentially target close-range ballistic missile (CRBM) systems recently supplied to Russia from Iran. Former US ambassador William Courtney, now an adjunct senior fellow at the RAND Corporation, noted that systems like ATACMS could effectively engage targets at such distances and beyond.
