With Kamala Harris now leading the Democratic ticket, enthusiasm and confidence within the party are at their highest since Barack Obama's 2008 campaign. This shift isn’t just in the atmosphere; it’s reflected in the drastically altered paths to victory in the Electoral College for both the Democrats and Donald Trump, especially since my last electoral map analysis on July 12, just before Joe Biden exited the race.
Democratic support has coalesced strongly around Harris, surpassing Republican enthusiasm. Harris has swiftly gained traction among nonwhite and younger voters, reshaping the electoral landscape.
We’re back to the battleground states that defined the race before Biden’s polling decline: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Current polling indicates a significant shift: Harris now leads Trump by four points in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, according to the latest New York Times/Siena College polls. Other surveys show her in a tight race with Trump in Georgia and Arizona.
One of Trump’s major hurdles is his persistent lack of majority support. In the Times/Siena surveys, he polls at only 46 percent in key states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. With a clearer race between two major candidates, support for third-party candidates has diminished, complicating Trump’s path to victory.
Nevertheless, Republicans still hold a structural advantage in the Electoral College, which could benefit Trump. Despite losing the popular vote in seven out of the last eight presidential elections, the GOP has won the White House three times. In 2016, Trump secured crucial Electoral College victories in swing states like Wisconsin, despite losing in heavily populated states like California. This advantage has been bolstered by recent adjustments to electoral vote allocations based on the latest census.
Given this advantage, Georgia and its 16 electoral votes are becoming increasingly crucial for Trump. If Harris can win Georgia—despite Trump’s apparent effort to undermine the popular Republican governor and his wife—she would secure 242 electoral votes, just 28 short of the 270 needed for victory.
Trump’s campaign clearly understands the stakes in Georgia. Since Harris became the Democratic nominee, Trump’s campaign and its major super PAC have spent significantly more on ads in Georgia compared to other states. Of the $37 million in national ad buys this week, nearly $24 million is allocated to Georgia.
Pennsylvania is emerging as another critical battleground, with both parties focusing heavily on it. According to AdImpact, over $211 million has been spent on media in Pennsylvania since March 6, more than double the amount spent in any other state.
Given Pennsylvania’s historical Democratic support and its size, losing the state could be as damaging to Harris’s campaign as a Georgia loss would be to Trump’s chances.
Ultimately, Georgia and Pennsylvania are the key states to watch. Success in these states will likely determine which candidate can secure a decisive path to 270 electoral votes.
